The Australian sharemarket is expected to fall when it opens on Monday after ending last week at fresh record highs.
A messy evening for US stocks on Friday after Australian markets closed suggests most gains will be lost as the week begins.
But the ASX has already rallied 3.9 per cent in the first two weeks of the year, AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver says.
“There’s not a lot in it,” Mr Oliver told AAP. “You’ve got to bear in mind that through the week our market rose 2.9 per cent.”
While some forecasts suggest a fall of about 52 points, or eight per cent, Dr Oliver said the drop would more likely to be between 30 or 40 points.
“It’s been very strong so far this year so a bit of a pull back on Monday morning isn’t a big deal in the scheme of things.”
In the US, the Dow Jones fell 133 points and the S&P 500 was down nine points, or about 0.3 per cent.
The weakness on Wall Street is expectedto impact futures trading on the Australian market, Mr Oliver said.
The key economic report to keep an eye out for this week is expected to be the Chinese GDP data for the December quarter, which is expected to come out on Friday.
Details from the first-phase of a trade deal between China and the US are also expected to be released in the coming week.
Impeachment documents against President Donald Trump are set to be sent to the US Senate. And tensions between Iran and the US are expected to settle down, Mr Oliver said.
In Australia the ongoing bushfires are expected to result in about a 0.4 per cent hit to GDP because of disruption in affected areas and the impact it has on consumer confidence and tourism.
Dr Oliver said the Australian dollar is likely to fall to around 65 US cents in coming months.
He said economic data is expected to be soft, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates again in February.
“As interest rates come down that will make it less attractive to park money in Australia which will drag on the Aussie dollar,” he said.
Source: Thanks smh.com