How to embrace uncertainty in an uncertain world

By Jim Bright

Embracing uncertainty has become a catch cry in an uncertain world. For many, however, they see nothing to embrace, or if they do, they want to embrace uncertainty like a wrestler embraces their opponent in order to prevent any harm.

Before embracing uncertainty, we play mind games that serve to convince us that doing nothing is the best option. This is always a popular strategy, because doing nothing almost always costs less in the short term. Identifying our self-limited thinking can be a useful first step in challenging this inertia.

Illustration: Kerrie Leishman
Illustration: Kerrie LeishmanCredit:

When confronted by the possibility of uncertainty, the most common defensive reaction is to deny its existence. This can be achieved by pointing out the similarities between this new situation and past events. The idea is that this is nothing new, and therefore nothing to be worried about or to be acted upon. My father’s rather crude retort when he did not want to engage with new ideas was to state rather finally that “I’ve seen ducks fart before”.

Another rather more widespread bit of folk wisdom is that dangerous expression “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. Of course this begins from the dubious premise that whatever it is, it is in fine working order. It also contains the hidden and therefore more dangerous assumption that by dint of it working, that it must be fit for purpose. Apply this logic to typewriters, and you can strangle word processors at birth.

Another common denialist strategy is to undermine the credibility of the evidence pointing to the uncertainty. This can be achieved by pointing out exceptions, casting doubt on the methods or logic used to assemble the evidence, and if all else fails, going after the individuals or organisations by sullying their reputations. There is no shark here, you are overreacting Sheriff, open the beaches!

If we can get past denying uncertainty, we can move instead to overconfidence in our ability to manage uncertainty. We convince ourselves that we do not need to do anything because we have a plan. We have contingency plans and the capability to address any eventuality. We sound like the invited guests at the top floor cocktail party in the Towering Inferno. Spoiler alert. That didn’t work out well for them.

Lacking self-confidence can be equally effective in barring any genuine action. In can be quite easy to convince ourselves or others not to act because we will never be able to cope in the new world offered by uncertainty, or that we risk failing , being out of our depth, and thus risk losing everything. Learned helplessness can have very debilitating impacts.

Minimising the impacts of uncertainty is another tempting strategy. We can minimise the duration “It will pass”, or use exceptionalism “it won’t affect me”. We can kid ourselves that it is no big deal, and as long as “we keep our heads down” we will be ok. One is put in mind of King Canute and an incoming tide. Prepare to get your feet wet.

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Celebrating what we have is another strategy. Highlighting how we enjoy our current routines and rituals, and encouraging people to keep on keeping on, can be potent messages to resist uncertainty. Rocky V or Porky’s Revenge anyone?

Finally, we can employ pessimism and doom-mongery to encourage a “stick to your knitting” strategy. Nothing in the future can ever be better than now. Given that our world is inherently uncertain, and like the poet Philip Larkin on death, is no different whined at than withstood, it might be a better strategy to accept this critical fact and work from there.

Jim Bright, FAPS is Professor of Career Education and Development at ACU and owns Bright and Associates, a Career Management Consultancy. Email to [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @DrJimBright.

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Source: Thanks smh.com