Fears of pandemic exodus from England’s cities prove unfounded

When Covid hit in 2020, it was a nerve-racking time for many urban developers. As gardens – or the countryside – seemed ever more important for locked-down house hunters, some wondered if their half-finished city apartment blocks would ever find residents.

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But almost two years into the pandemic, the speculation about “the death of the city” have been proven wrong. Exclusive figures gathered by the Guardian suggest thousands more people are now living in the biggest English city centres since Covid first hit the UK – mostly in flats, often without balconies or outdoor space.

In Liverpool, the city centre population increased by almost 6% in 2020 to 48,594, up 2,754 on 2019, according to the local authority.

Leeds city council estimates that 5,000 more people are living in its centre now than in 2019, among them staff at Channel 4, which opened its “national headquarters” in the city earlier this year. “We estimate the total population to now be around 38,000,” said a spokesperson.

Demand is rising in central London as renters return to the city centre, according to the Greater London Authority’s December 2021 housing report. Data from Rightmove shows a rent price increase of 11.1% since November 2019 and an annual increase in house prices of 2.7%.

In Manchester, the city centre population is now 69,835, up 4.9% on 2021, according to estimates from the council.

“Despite Covid-19, Manchester remains the fastest growing city in England – and the population of the city centre is expected to be close to 100,000 by 2025,” said Gavin White, the council’s executive member for housing and employment.

“The pandemic has not deterred people wishing to live in the city and this is because of a combination of factors. The number of jobs being created (including specialist sectors like advance manufacturing, digital and tech), culture, sport – and not just football – along with a rate of graduate retention not seen previously; these are all reasons why Manchester continues to enjoy enviable city growth.”

Others point out that a city centre exodus may not have come to pass because some flat owners are stuck, unable to sell up because of issues with cladding and fire safety.

In Manchester city centre there were only 870 properties sold in 2020-21, a 75% reduction on 2019-20. In its annual State of the City report, the council blames the drop on “significant constraints on the supply of suitable accommodation to buy (linked primarily to cladding and fire-safety concerns)”.

On Monday the government unveiled a £4bn package designed to let more leaseholders escape costs for replacing combustible cladding and pledged new laws to protect them from other safety defect costs.

Many of the new city centre residents are renters rather than buyers, often living in luxury blocks with gyms and paying £2,000 a month for a two-bed flat. A lot of these flats are bought “off-plan” by investors.

Off-plan purchases (before construction) are particularly booming outside London. Figures from Hamptons estate agents showed 40% of new homes were sold off-plan in the capital in 2021, compared with 61% in Birmingham, 58% in Manchester, 60% in Liverpool and 45% in Leeds.

The rapid rate of development in Manchester’s centre led to fears of “zombie blocks” left unoccupied. But according to the State of the City report, only 1% of properties there have remained empty for more than six months.

A growing number of family homes have also been constructed in Manchester, prompting the council to build its first city centre primary school for generations. The 210-place school and 26-place nursery will be located at Crown Street, a new development in the Deansgate ward, and is expected to open in September 2023.

Leeds is also planning major city centre expansion over the next decade. A council spokesperson said: “Up to 2033, the local plan has capacity for a further 18,000 new homes in the city centre and its fringe across 110 sites, which is consistent with the council’s strategy to maximise the capacity of sustainable locations and the re-use of brownfield sites for residential use.

“Over half of these homes already either have detailed planning consent or are under construction. Based on current occupancy assumptions, this would see growth of 27,000 additional city centre residents.”