Scott Morrison hits back at ‘highly unlikely’ Omicron predictions

December 22, 2021 Ava

Scott Morrison has shot down predictions Australia will see 200,000 daily cases by the end of next month, as the country’s chief medical officer hits back at doomsayers’ fears arguing not one Australian has died or is in ICU from Omicron.

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The PM said ‘real caution’ needed to be exercised when considering the Doherty Institute’s new modelling about the spread of the virus during a live interview on the Today Show on Wednesday.

Doherty’s modelling claims that without bringing back low-to-medium restrictions being mandated such as masks and density limits, Australia could face millions of Covid cases by the end of January or early February.

Mr Morrison said the modelling assumed the Omicron strain is as serious as Delta and didn’t take into consideration the revamped booster program or people taking ‘sensible behavioural responses in what they’re doing’.

‘So I wouldn’t want to alarm people over that report. That is not what we are actually expecting to happen,’ he said, adding the grim predictions were ‘highly unlikely’.

‘There is a range of scenarios but I would say this – of course the number of Omicron cases will increase. It’s highly infectious.

‘But the indications are that it is not as severe and our hospitals, in NSW and Victoria, have been coping extremely well.’

Australia’s chief medical officer has also hit back at the report in a remarkable late night update.

Professor Paul Kelly said the new Omicron variant after the modelling’s headline number – and claims there could be 4,000 cases in hospital a day – was leaked late on Tuesday.

The grim prediction prompted Professor Kelly to address ‘selective and misleading media reporting about ongoing modelling’ and believes the predicted hospitalisation estimations are unlikely.

‘Evidence about the characteristics of Omicron is still emerging but early trends seen both internationally and within Australia suggest that it is more transmissible,’ he said.

‘However, early indications around hospitalisation, ICU admission and death show that Omicron could be far less than Delta and other variants.

‘Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date.’

‘Omicron is here in Australia, it will be an unwanted guest with us for Christmas, but we can and must do what we can to reduce its impact on each of us and our loved ones.’

While Professor Kelly recognised modelling is an important tool in government decision-making, it’s one of a range of tools and can’t be viewed in isolation.

‘A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making, presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program, no change to baseline public health and social measures and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers,’ he added.

‘None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together, therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading.’

He says public health and social measures will have an impact on slowing the spread of the Omicron variant.

‘For now, there are some easy steps we can take as individuals to help our community, including practicing good hand hygiene and wearing a mask when indoors,’ Professor Kelly said,.

‘It protects you and it protects the people around you. I am already putting my mask on wherever I go. It’s a simple defence that can help us all.’

His comments comes after Australian National University professor Peter Collignon slammed the grim prediction as ‘completely unbelievable’.

‘I don’t know where they’ve come up with this modelling but it’s not based on any real world data,’ he told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday night.

‘They are assumptions that do not correlate to anything we’ve seen before in summer in any other country.

‘If there were 200,000 cases a day, the whole of Australia would be infected in just a few months. That hasn’t happened anywhere in the world.’

‘They’ve got twice the population of us and far less vaccination. So I just find that figure unbelievable and not realistic.

‘We haven’t seen this in South Africa or anywhere else in the world.’

Professor Collignon also explained why the potential reintroduction of mask mandates may not have much of an impact on containing the spread.

‘Face masks might decrease your risks by about 10 per cent but over the medium to long term it won’t really make a lot of difference, particularly in summer when people won’t use them properly. That’s the reality of it,’ he said.

‘I find their figure of 200,000 unbelievable, therefore I find their assumptions about masks probably unbelievable too.’

READ THE FULL STATEMENT FROM PROFESSOR PAUL KELLY

The Government and myself, as Chief Medical Officer and chair of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), are continually monitoring the COVID-19 situation in Australia and internationally, in collaboration with the medical experts, with the goal of keeping our community safe and continuing our world leading response to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

I wish to address selective and misleading media reporting about ongoing modelling used to inform decision making by Governments.

Recent modelling, both in Australia and internationally, presents a range of potential scenarios as a result of the Omicron variant. While modelling is an important tool to help guide decision-making, it is just one of a range of tools and cannot be viewed in isolation. Modelling helps to prepare for all scenarios and to mitigate the risk associated with the pandemic.

A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making, presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program, no change to baseline public health and social measures and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers. None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together, therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading.

Australia has a world class COVID-19 response and this has meant the numbers modelled previously, particularly early in the pandemic, have not been realised. Early modelling in 2020 at the start of the outbreak suggested that there would be 35,000 ICU beds required within 17 weeks of an uncontrolled outbreak. This was never realised.

The Omicron variant, first detected on 9 November 2021, and its international spread has required ongoing advice to be provided to Governments. Evidence about the characteristics of Omicron is still emerging but early trends seen both internationally and within Australia suggest that it is more transmissible.

However, early indications around hospitalisation, ICU admission and death show that Omicron could be far less than Delta and other variants. Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date.

Omicron is here in Australia, it will be an unwanted guest with us for Christmas, but we can and must do what we can to reduce its impact on each of us and our loved ones.

Australia has world leading vaccination rates with approximately 94% of Australians sixteen years and over having received at least one COVID-19 vaccine and approximately 91% are fully vaccinated.

Australia was also one of the first countries in the world to move to a whole of population national booster program. The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) has recommended that the eligibility for booster doses be brought forward from six months to five months from completion of the primary vaccination course and they continue to review the emerging evidence. The Government will continue to follow the medical advice and bring forward that interval if necessary.

There are two key take home messages for policy makers. The first, a collaborative effort is required to get as many third boosters doses into arms in the coming month as possible, in line with the ATAGI advice. The second is that public health and social measures, adapted to local epidemiology, will also have an important effect on slowing the spread of Omicron, as it has done with previous variants.

For now, there are some easy steps we can take as individuals to help our community, including practicing good hand hygiene and wearing a mask when indoors. It protects you and it protects the people around you. I am already putting my mask on wherever I go. It’s a simple defence that can help us all.

Every single person eligible for a booster vaccine should look to make an appointment when they are eligible to further protect yourself against Omicron. There is plenty of supply around the country and there’s no reason to wait when it is your turn, consistent with the medical advice.

I am confident that, together with the states and territories, we can continue to have world leading vaccination uptake and sensible health measures to ensure that we continue to effectively manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: Thanks msn.com