‘They have to be held to account’: Future Fund chairman lashes RBA over rate rises

Future Fund chairman Peter Costello has lashed the Reserve Bank for misjudging the economy, saying borrowers are now facing steeper interest rate hikes because of its failure to act earlier on surging inflation.

As the $194.4 billion taxpayer-owned fund on Thursday delivered a negative return of -1.2 per cent for the year to June, Costello predicted more volatility on financial markets as central banks continue to push rates higher.

Future Fund chairman Peter Costello: “You’ve got to say it wasn’t a very good chapter for the Reserve Bank.”
Future Fund chairman Peter Costello: “You’ve got to say it wasn’t a very good chapter for the Reserve Bank.”Credit: Eamon Gallagher

Costello argued the fund’s -1.2 per cent return, the fund’s first negative result since 2020, was a strong performance against a volatile backdrop, as he accused central banks of being too slow to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

“It’s our belief that monetary authorities, both in the US and in Australia, were caught napping,” Costello said. “With the surge in inflation.. .now the rate rises are going to have to be much more significant than would have been the case than if they’d begun to act earlier,”

Costello, a former federal treasurer in the Howard government, is also the chairman of Nine Entertainment Co, which owns The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

He took aim at RBA governor Philip Lowe’s past guidance that it was unlikely to lift the cash rate until 2024 and the RBA’s now-abandoned attempts to force down government bond yields.

Lowe, who has raised interest rates from 0.1 per cent to 1.85 per cent since May, has previously admitted the bank’s guidance was an “embarrassing” error. The RBA has also admitted it suffered reputational damage from some of its unconventional policies during COVID-19.

Costello acknowledged the RBA’s decisions were made during a crisis, but said central bankers should still be accountable for errors made.

“The [Reserve] Bank gave guidance, the guidance turned out to be wrong. The Bank intervened to try and produce the outcome and of course, the money that it used to intervene was wasted,” Costello said.

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“So you’ve got to say it wasn’t a very good chapter for the Reserve Bank.”

The Future Fund, which invests to help pay the pensions of government employees, has returned 6.1 per cent a year over the past three years. Since its inception in 2006 it has returned 7.8 per cent a year.

The RBA’s performance and structure is set to be put under the microscope through an inquiry into the central bank that is expected to report next year, and Costello backed its target of keeping inflation between 2 and 3 per cent. All the same, he said the inquiry should look at how well the policy was executed and there should be a discussion about how to make sure the central bank was held to account.

“They’re not above criticism and they’re not infallible, and they have to be held to account as well,” he said.

Costello did not express a view on whether Lowe should be reappointed as governor, saying this was a matter for government. With official rates now at 1.85 per cent and expected to climb towards about 3 per cent, Costello argued that some people could be in “a lot of trouble” if they had relied on the RBA’s guidance that official rates were unlikely to rise above 0.1 per cent until 2024.

“Now, we at the Future Fund obviously didn’t rely on that forward guidance, I’m very glad we didn’t. We’d be in a terrible position today,” he said.

“But there are some young home owners that might have, some investors might have, and it didn’t do them much good.”

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